Will consumers upgrade to Windows 10?

LOS ANGELES — Microsoft vows to have 1 billion folks using the new Windows 10 by 2018.

Is that a stretch?

Not really, says analyst Tim Bajarin of Creative Strategies.

The PC industry sells from 275 million to 300 million computers yearly with Windows pre-installed. Three years of sales plus upgrades, “and it’s easy to get to 1 billion,” he says.

Wednesday, the new Windows 10 is available as a download, initially aimed at enthusiasts who signed up to be early adopters.

Richard Doherty, an analyst with the Envisioneering Group, says some 600 million to 650 million users of Windows 7 and Windows 8 qualify for the free upgrade, but most — about two-thirds — will wait a few months before giving it a try.

“It’s always the more technically inclined who start the upgrade process for first 6 to 9 months,” says Bajarin, “The general consumer will wait" because they’ll want to make sure issues with download speeds, lost connections and other kinks are worked out first.

Also, most of the Windows 10 sales will be to businesses, which traditionally stall the longest before upgrading, says Bajarin.

“We don’t expect serious upgrades until the second or third quarter of next year,” he adds.

While Apple computers have a huge presence on TV shows and college campuses and at tech start-ups, it’s good to remember that most consumers and businesses are overwhelmingly Windows based, notes Bajarin.

Apple sells around 16 million computers a year — a far cry from the nearly 300 million Windows PCs.